Recent rain too little, too late to swell runoff; near-record drought still looms

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Throughout March, data from sensing devices buried atop mountains, measuring sticks thrust in the snow, and cores of white stuff weighed for water content have all been pointing toward the same bad news: The region is headed for one of the driest years on record.

A preliminary analysis of snowpack for this month released by the Northwest River Forecast Center in Portland yesterday predicts near-record-low runoff past the Dalles Dam on the Columbia River this year. The Dalles dam is midway down the river.

On average, April 1 marks the peak of snow accumulation. Whatever has banked by then is typically as good as the region will get.

Recent rain wasn't plentiful enough to help; it actually aggravated the situation by melting snow the region will need later in the year.

The bottom line is a region running low on power and water.

Early forecasts from the center show runoff past the Dalles totaling 55.7 million acre-feet, or 53 percent of normal. That's just shy of the record set in 1977, with total runoff volume of 53.3 million acre-feet, or 51 percent of normal.

Runoff from snowpack drives the region's hydropower system, which provides more than 70 percent of the power used in Washington. Irrigators depend on snowpack to water their crops. Salmon migrate in streams cooled and filled by snowpack.

The last serious drought in the region hit in 1977. Some street lights were turned off in Seattle and Portland. A thermometer was posted on the side of the Seattle City Light building to track customer conservation. Salmon suffered. Aluminum companies laid off 600 workers after the Bonneville Power Administration yanked 25 percent of their power.

This drought could be tougher to manage for several reasons:

• Salmon are now protected by the Endangered Species Act (ESA). That means scarce water will have to be set aside for fish, instead of run through generators to create power. ESA requirements to protect fish can be loosened in a power emergency, but don't disappear.

• The region is heading into the summer with low reservoirs. Some are lower than they've ever been since they were built.

That's because power generators drew reservoirs down to meet electricity demand this winter, rain hasn't refilled them and the snowmelt will be low.

• The 1977 drought was lessened by a wet spring. But so far this March has not brought much moisture.

"There is no way we are going to make up the difference," said Steve Todd, meteorologist at the Portland office of the National Weather Service.

Lynda Mapes can be reached at 206-464-2736 or lmapes@seattletimes.com.