Monsters' brawl: Super freaks, math geeks and the waitress factor. Yes, folks, it's anybody's Oscars.

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Math men and can-cans and elves, oh my!

It's been an odd movie year, and an even odder Oscar season. When the nominations were announced on Feb. 12, "A Beautiful Mind" looked like a shoo-in for the big awards: It's the comforting story of mathematician John Nash's triumph over adversity, starring last year's Oscar winner and directed by beloved Hollywood veteran Ron Howard.

Then the controversy began, with questions arising about Akiva Goldsman's screenplay (which was rather loosely adapted from its source biography), Nash's past, and Russell Crowe's boorish behavior at the British Academy Awards (he cornered a producer post-ceremony, demanding to know why his acceptance speech was edited for television). Could all this, happening during the crucial academy voting period, sway members toward Peter Jackson's "The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring"? Or could "Moulin Rouge," surprise winner of best picture from the Producers Guild, stage an upset?

And — the most crucial question of all — who will be Nicole Kidman's Oscar date?

Anything could happen, and probably will, at tonight's Oscar ceremony, when all questions will be answered. In the waning pre-Oscar hours, here's an attempt at predicting the results, my own favorites, and a final nod to those non-nominees who really should have been contenders. (Full disclosure: I never win Oscar pools, so you have been warned.)

Best picture

"A Beautiful Mind" was a safe bet six weeks ago; despite everything, it still looks like a winner now, with its only real competition "The Lord of the Rings." Either could stage a sweep, but "Mind" seems a safer bet. "In the Bedroom" and "Gosford Park," both marvelous films, are long shots. "Moulin Rouge" would be an audacious choice — and could signal the long-awaited re-emergence of the movie musical — but a very unlikely one.

Prediction: "A Beautiful Mind."

My vote: "Moulin Rouge," just because I love the idea of such a wild film winning best picture. But, if you're going to force me to get all serious, "In the Bedroom."

Wish you were here: "Mulholland Drive."

Best actor

Russell Crowe, who's won all the major pre-Oscar awards for his "A Beautiful Mind" performance, is the obvious choice, but he won last year and the academy may be loath to honor the naughty Australian again. Conversely, voters may wish to reward Denzel Washington, who was wickedly good as a bad cop in "Training Day" and who's never won in this category, despite years of splendid performances. Tom Wilkinson ("In the Bedroom") is the dark horse; Will Smith ("Ali") and Sean Penn ("I Am Sam") will have other years.

Prediction: Denzel Washington.

My vote: Denzel Washington.

Wish you were here: Billy Bob Thornton, "The Man Who Wasn't There."

Best actress

Everyone's predicting Sissy Spacek ("In the Bedroom"), but keep in mind that this category has recently been favoring young stars over veterans (e.g., Julia Roberts, Hilary Swank, Gwyneth Paltrow). Also, consider The Waitress Factor: Every recent decade, an Oscar has gone to a best-actress nominee playing a waitress (Helen Hunt in '97, Jodie Foster in '88, Ellen Burstyn in '74). Halle Berry, who eloquently donned a waitress uniform in "Monster's Ball," could be this decade's choice. Then again, Sissy's pretty terrific, too. Also nominated: Nicole Kidman ("Moulin Rouge"), Judi Dench ("Iris") and Renée Zellweger ("Bridget Jones's Diary").

Prediction: Halle Berry.

My vote: Sissy Spacek, but it's close.

Wish you were here: Naomi Watts, "Mulholland Drive."

Best supporting actor

This one's harder to call, with all three British nominees — Ben Kingsley ("Sexy Beast"), Jim Broadbent ("Iris") and Ian McKellen ("The Lord of the Rings") — having a good shot. I'll predict Kingsley, who had the showiest role (as a profanity-spouting villain), but voters might decide to hand it to popular McKellen, who received his film's only acting nominations. Also nominated: Ethan Hawke ("Training Day"), Jon Voight ("Ali").

Prediction: Ben Kingsley.

My vote: Jim Broadbent.

Wish you were here: Steve Buscemi, "Ghost World."

Best supporting actress

Jennifer Connelly ("A Beautiful Mind") is talented, exquisite and co-starring in the movie that could sweep Oscar night, so she's a pretty safe bet, especially since Helen Mirren and Maggie Smith, both from "Gosford Park," will likely cancel each other out. Marisa Tomei, absolutely heartbreaking in "In the Bedroom," could surprise here. Kate Winslet was her usual radiant self in "Iris," but it's not her year.

Prediction: Jennifer Connelly.

My vote: Marisa Tomei.

Wish you were here: Kristin Scott Thomas, "Gosford Park."

Best director

Hollywood loves good-guy Ron Howard, who's never won an Oscar before (or even been nominated, although his "Apollo 13" did get a 1996 best-picture nod). If "A Beautiful Mind" sweeps, expect Howard to be swept along with it; likewise, if "The Lord of the Rings" has the momentum, Peter Jackson could take home this statuette. David Lynch and Ridley Scott, whose films weren't nominated for best picture, have no chance. Robert Altman is surely deserving, but a "Gosford Park" win here seems unlikely.

Prediction: Ron Howard.

My vote: David Lynch.

Wish you were here: Baz Luhrmann, "Moulin Rouge."

Best animated feature film

This category debuts to a very small field: only three nominees ("Shrek," "Monsters, Inc." and "Jimmy Neutron: Boy Genius"), and only two worth taking seriously.

Prediction: "Shrek."

My vote: "Monsters, Inc."

Wish you were here: "Waking Life."

Best adapted screenplay

The controversy over Akiva Goldsman's adaptation of Sylvia Nasar's biography of John Nash may keep "A Beautiful Mind" from prevailing here; and the likely successor is — surprise — the acclaimed screenplay for "The Lord of the Rings," by Fran Walsh, Philippa Boyens and Peter Jackson. Also nominated: "In the Bedroom," "Ghost World" and "Shrek."

Prediction: "The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring."

My vote: "In the Bedroom."

Wish you were here: "Last Orders," sensitively adapted by Fred Schepisi (released in Seattle in 2002, but technically a 2001 release).

Best original screenplay

The academy will likely want to toss at least one award toward "Gosford Park," and a nod for Julian Fellowes' clever screenplay would be entirely appropriate. Or, as the wild card, consider the twisty script for "Memento." Also nominated: "Amélie," "Monster's Ball" and "The Royal Tenenbaums."

Prediction: "Gosford Park."

My vote: "Memento."

Wish you were here: "The Others," by Alejandro Amenabar.

Art direction

This award usually goes to a sumptuous period film, so look for the elegant "Gosford Park" to have an edge. "The Lord of the Rings" could make a surprise appearance here, though, as could the kitschy dazzler "Moulin Rouge."

Prediction: "Gosford Park."

My vote: "Moulin Rouge."

Wish you were here: "Mulholland Drive."

Cinematography

Roger Deakins' gorgeous work in "The Man Who Wasn't There" is the standout in this field, but the academy's unlikely to award a black-and-white film (more's the pity). Look for Andrew Lesnie to triumph for "The Lord of the Rings," or perhaps Donald McAlpine for "Moulin Rouge." Also nominated: "Amélie," "Black Hawk Down."

Prediction: "The Lord of the Rings."

My vote: "The Man Who Wasn't There."

Wish you were here: "In the Bedroom."

Best costume design

For pure imagination, this one's got to go to "Moulin Rouge," although perennial Merchant-Ivory nominee Jenny Beavan did lovely work in "Gosford Park." Also nominated: "The Affair of the Necklace," "Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone" and "The Lord of the Rings."

Prediction: "Moulin Rouge."

My vote: "Moulin Rouge."

Wish you were here: "Zoolander."

Best foreign-language film

It's a near-cinch that the academy will have fallen in love with this year's art-house darling "Amélie." "No Man's Land" is the closest thing to a dark horse, but I'd be amazed if this one didn't go to France this year. Also nominated: Norway's "Elling," India's "Lagaan" and Argentina's "Son of the Bride."

Prediction: "Amélie."

My vote: "Amélie."

Wish you were here: "With a Friend Like Harry."

Best original score

Oh please, oh please, dear academy, let poor Randy Newman break his 14-nomination losing streak (which could be 16, if he loses in both of his nominated categories this year) with his bouncy score for "Monsters, Inc." But instinct tells me that Howard Shore's score to "The Lord of the Rings" will prevail. Also nominated: "A.I.," "Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone" and "A Beautiful Mind."

Prediction: "The Lord of the Rings."

My vote: "Monsters, Inc."

Wish you were here: "Ocean's Eleven."

Best original song

As usual, this is a pretty forgettable batch of tunes, as evidenced by the fact that I can't remember what any of them sound like. So I'm voting for "Vanilla Sky," written by Paul McCartney, just because it would be cool to see Sir Paul win an Oscar. Also nominated: "May It Be" from "The Lord of the Rings," "If I Didn't Have You" from "Monsters Inc.," "There You'll Be" from "Pearl Harbor," and "Until" from "Kate and Leopold." Go on, try to hum even one of them.

Prediction: "Until," from "Kate and Leopold."

My vote: "Vanilla Sky," from "Vanilla Sky."

Wish you were here: Were there any good songs this year? Really?

Moira Macdonald: 206-464-2725 or mmacdonald@seattletimes.com.