R-51 a crucial down payment
In Washington's last midterm election, only 45 percent of the voting-age population bothered to register and vote, continuing a 40-year trend. When voters are scant, and often slow to decide, the last five weeks of a tight political campaign — such as for the Referendum 51 gas-tax hike for big-ticket transportation projects — allow for beating tough odds.
A recent Elway Research poll for The Times showed hard "yes" support for R-51 in King County at only 22 percent. Adding those "inclined" to support it, the measure wins backing from two-thirds in King County, but lags to the immediate north in Snohomish County (43 percent) and the immediate south in Pierce County (40 percent).
An August poll by the campaign essentially rated R-51 a tossup statewide. A push on the airwaves, through direct mail and in community outreach, could bump the numbers higher. The war chest of $2.8 million (and growing) has bought some good talent, notably California initiative gurus Woodward and McDowell. The firm boasts an impressive 95-percent success rate and claims, "If it's ugly, unwinnable and controversial, they are certain to call us."
The six-figure donations from Bill Gates, Microsoft, Boeing, the Seattle Mariners and Asphalt Paving Association of Washington may pay off. So, too, the many "smaller" contributions from the rest of Washington's business firmament to Taxpayers for Referendum 51.
R-51 is a $7.7-billion down payment on our staggering transportation needs. According to "Washington's Transportation Plan — 2003-2022," those priorities total $66.8 billion for state-owned highways, ferries and rail, plus some public transportation (city and county roads aren't included).
Under R-51, the 23-cents-a-gallon gas tax would grow by 9 cents over two years; a 1-percent surtax would be levied on car sales; and weight fees for trucks heavier than 10,000 pounds would rise 30 percent (excluding pickups and RVs).
If R-51 tanks, traffic congestion worsens, economic development takes a hit, dangerous intersections and bridges statewide languish, and the ferry system teeters. Boeing edges closer to leaving Washington altogether (smile, we have a diversified economy). The Legislature rustles up maybe two-thirds of the dough in R-51, and prospects dim for passage of next year's supplemental Puget Sound transportation package.
Debate in Seattle has included whether R-51 does enough for public transportation. According to the Washington State Department of Transportation's strict reading, a bit more than one-tenth of the take ($820 million) would go to public transportation via park-and-ride lots, van pools, commute-trip-reduction grants, rural-mobility grants, paratransit and direct distributions to transit agencies.
Factor in intercity rail, new passenger-only ferry routes and HOV lanes (not public transportation per se, but another transportation choice) and the figure jumps to nearly one-quarter of the kitty.
However, R-51 will not turn solely on Seattle's concerns, or those of King County. Together, Pierce, Snohomish, Kitsap and Thurston counties have nearly as many voters as King.
Central Puget Sound, defined by WSDOT as all five counties, gets three-quarters of R-51's proceeds. But the state's most populous region, plus the Vancouver and Spokane "urban areas," currently generate more in state transportation taxes and fees than they get. They'd continue subsidizing projects in the rest of Washington even if R-51 passes.
R-51's chances for success will hinge on the nexus between self-interest and the common good. Kathleen Deakins can speak to that. A south King County resident and co-owner of a public relations and advertising firm with offices in Tacoma and Seattle, she recently spent an aggravating four-and-a-half hours on a round trip between her Tacoma office and a meeting at Seattle's Edgewater Hotel.
Though there's plenty in R-51 for Pierce County and Seattle's south suburbs, Deakins says she'll be looking at more than that. "Most of us don't drive in just one county. Many people are regional road users."
Casey Cochrane, government-affairs manager for the Tacoma-Pierce County Chamber of Commerce, says such "motivated respondents" include the 27 percent of Pierce County's workforce that works elsewhere in the region, mostly in King County.
Across Washington, we're behind and have to start catching up. Just the first 10-year slice of state transportation projects will cost $32.7 billion, while current law and R-51 would provide only $12.6 billion toward that. So even if a slightly pricier R-51 gained approval and were spent differently, as critics suggest, unmet needs would still remain daunting.
The transportation spending cycle is not a finite thing. We have to keep at it. Sort of like dental maintenance, and about as much fun. Around Puget Sound at least, finding the added taxes, fees and tolls for improved roads and bridges will eventually build greater support for alternatives to peak-hour solo car commutes. Yet, even as price elasticity further hastens such shifts, a plethora of single-occupant cars and trucks will continue using our beaten-down, dangerous, overcrowded roads.
For many reasons, it's time to get moving. Vote "yes" on R-51.
Matt Rosenberg is a Seattle writer and regular contributor to The Times' editorial pages. E-mail him at oudist@nwlink.com.