Winds of change: Alinghi has more experience

Popular theory: When the America's Cup begins today in New Zealand, the Kiwi boat once again will be fastest.

Established fact: It had better be.

If anything has been a certainty in the passionate, perplexing and occasionally hysterical pursuit of yacht racing's Auld Mug over the past eight years, it is this: Team New Zealand has fielded the fastest boats and best sailors.

For America's Cup XXXI, the speed edge still is a high probability, especially with the Kiwis' vaunted, rule-pushing "hula," an innovative hull appendage many experts believe will give the black NZL-82 boat a critical speed advantage, at least upwind.

But a crew edge, for once, is a giant question mark. Not that the Kiwis have lost their global edge in yacht racing. They've simply spread out.

Syndicate malaise — and the lure of big overseas dollars — created massive Team NZ crew defections after the successful 2000 Kiwi America's Cup defense. A handful signed on with highly financed American efforts to wrest the Cup away on a first try: Craig McCaw and Paul Allen's Seattle-based OneWorld Challenge and Oracle CEO Larry Ellison's Oracle/BMW Racing both claimed their share.

His team has done it largely by designing a boat with smart refinements on NZL-60, the 2000 Kiwi champion. Of course, it doesn't hurt that Alinghi's charcoal-and-red SUI-64 also happens to be driven by the very two men who piloted NZL-60 to victory in the last Cup.

Coutts and Butterworth, the Starsky and Hutch of America's Cup racing, aren't just one of the better duos to grace Cup competition in recent years. They're one of the most lethal ever.

Coutts, 40, and Butterworth, 43, steered NZL-32 to a 5-0 win over Dennis Conner's Young America in the 1995 Cup in San Diego, then skunked Italy's Prada 5-0 in 2000 on the Hauraki Gulf. In late September, with Kiwi locals bursting with emotion over their scandalous defection, Coutts and Butterworth sailed into the Vuitton Cup challenger series with an astonishing seven-year Cup unbeaten streak.

It was dashed in early October by OneWorld, skippered by five-time Cup veteran Peter Gilmour of Australia. OneWorld's young helmsman, James Spithill, shocked the regatta by outdueling Coutts in the start, grabbing an early lead and hanging on for a 10-second victory.

It would prove a fleeting triumph. In the later rounds, Alinghi fine-tuned its boat and crew, handily crushing OneWorld and Oracle, the other top challenger.

Gilmour says it's a credit to Alinghi's crew, but even more to its innovative and uncommonly versatile boat.

"When we've raced against them, one thing I've really noticed is that they have very much a high mode, with good speed, as well as a real bow-down, soft mode.

"In 1995, NZL-32 won the America's Cup by essentially sailing higher (pointed more directly into the wind) than any of the competitors. In the 2000 Cup, everyone tried to get to that same high mode. And the Kiwis, instead of going higher, started going faster and sailing a little bit lower, which can produce a better (relative speed) up the track.

"Interestingly enough, Alinghi has managed to incorporate both the high and the low, fast mode — in one boat."

It was the only boat in the regatta with that ability, Gilmour said, noting that his own USA-67 had the high mode alone. The combination — a major advantage in close-quarters combat — could prove equally lethal in the Cup finals, particularly if the Kiwi boat proves less swift upwind than advertised, Gilmour believes.

Like many Cup watchers, Gilmour says he thinks the two boats are so fundamentally different, one is likely to dominate the other in the best-of-nine series: If the hula indeed gives the Kiwis sufficient horsepower to win the drag race to the first mark every time, they're likely to be unbeatable. But if Alinghi can match that speed — or even come close to it, he believes the Swiss boat might prove more versatile, faster downwind, and better overall, he believes.

The Swiss boat, an improbable underdog given its 2-1 budget advantage over Team NZ, has some intangibles on its side, Gilmour believes.

The Kiwis might have hurt themselves by running their campaign in complete secrecy, avoiding any real-life racing scenarios or a defender's trial, he believes.

"They're a very young group," Gilmour says. "I guess they could be so confident they've hit the nail bang on the head that all they've tried to do is lie low."

With Alinghi, by contrast, "You have to look at the enormity of the regatta they've just been through," he says. "It's a tight sailing team. That's terribly valuable."

Of course, Gilmour and most of his OneWorld crew are unabashedly rooting for Alinghi. OneWorld's crew stands a chance of staying together another three years if Alinghi wins and moves the Cup defense from New Zealand to Europe.

But it's easy to buy their argument that the Kiwis, defending their national honor on their home waters, have all the pressure. Much has been made of young Kiwi skipper Dean Barker's supposed one-upping of Coutts, now a $5 million Swiss employee, during practices for the 2000 Cup. But the pressure-cooker of actual Cup racing itself will be all new to Barker and his talented, but untested, crew.

For the Cup itself, though, a lot more is at stake than mere Kiwi pride: The competition is at a true crossroads. The Kiwis likely would host another traditional defense in 2006, with similar challenger-series rules to this regatta. That could limit the number of challengers — and ensure a long Cup tenure in New Zealand.

By contrast, if Alinghi wins, Bertarelli has pledged to modernize and streamline the rules, further loosening nationality restrictions, clarifying design regulations and generally making Cup challenges more accessible and affordable. The fact that Switzerland has no seaport means a number of European cities could bid for hosting privileges. The Cup could put on a fresh, modern face in '06 that gives the event a higher profile than it has ever enjoyed.

All of which is why, when old teammates Coutts and Barker stare each other down while dialing up in the start box today, a lot more is at stake than a silly old trophy and a simmering spat over Kiwi pride.

The America's Cup has always been an event with squishy rules surrounding a firm ideal: putting the world's most skilled sailors and designers on the same racecourse, in pursuit of a truly gaudy old trophy, with a bit of national pride thrown in for good measure.

That part of it isn't likely to change based on which boat gets the finish flag most often in the coming days. But just about everything else is up for grabs.

Ron C. Judd: 206-464-8280 or rjudd@seattletimes.com