Wednesday, January 28, 2004 - Page updated at 12:00 AM

Mariners

Q & A: 2004 Mariners

Spring training is just around the bend, and with all the recent changes, it's time to get focused on the Mariners. We had M's beat writer Bob Finnigan and MLB writer Larry Stone on hand for an hour to take questions.

What is the big deal with Pudge? I think he is way overrated! Why get someone who is getting older and really isn't that good at his position anymore? I think the M's need to trade for Carlos Beltran. He is younger and faster! — Brent, Everett

Larry Stone: Well, there are definitely pluses and minuses with Pudge. He had a pretty good year in 2003, and was phenomenal in the playoffs. He still throws as well as anyone. But there are concerns about his second-half decline (just three homers after the All-Star break), about his commitment to doing the preparation on scouting reports a catcher must do; plus, he's at an age, 32, when catchers often start to break down and decline rapidly. That's why the Mariners wanted to sign him to a one- or two-year deal only.

As for Beltran, he would be the No. 1 ideal acquisition, in my opinion -- a five-tool guy who plays center field, and not really that expensive ($9 million). The problem is, the Royals feel they have a legitimate chance to win the AL Central. They're finally building up some enthusiasm in KC. Trading Beltran would be a P.R. nightmare. My information is that they're not going to trade him unless they're absolutely blown away -- and it's hard to give up someone like Rafael Soriano for a guy who will be a free agent after the season. However, if the Royals fade in the pennant race, then the Royals will almost certainly look to trade Beltran. The Mariners won't be the only team after him, but they do have a lot of young pitching to use as trade bait.

Who would you like to receive for the Kaz money? Would you wait until spring training or possibly even the trading deadline? — Shannon Brown, Seattle

L. S.: I would probably have signed Pudge if they could have got him for two years and $18 million or less (or even one year, with an option). I think his presence would really have energized this team. But that doesn't look like it's going to happen, so the next step is to see who is available in trade, the sooner, the better. Carlos Beltran and Magglio Ordonez would be be my top two names. Beltran probably isn't available now. Ordonez very well might be. The problem with waiting until the trade deadline is that it might be too late, as strong as the Angels and possibly the A's could be.

Why did the Mariners go after Pudge when they can go after a younger and more versatile catcher like Jason Kendall? — Gregg Florentin, Vancouver, Wash.

L. S.: There are a couple of problems with Kendall (who will be 30 in June -- not that much younger than Pudge). The biggest is that he is still owed $42 million through 2007 ($8 million in '04, $10 million in '05, $11 million in '06, $13 million in '07). That's an awful big price tag for a guy that scouts say has been in defensive decline since he suffered a major ankle injury a few years ago. His offensive numbers were good last year (.325, .399 on-base percentage) but it was pretty soft (38 extra base hits, compared to 55 for Rodriguez). He has some versatility, as you mention, but I don't think he's a guy you'd want patrolling the outfield at Safeco Field. He might be worth acquiring if the Pirates eat a large portion of his salary, but the Padres and Pirates have had numerous trade discussions involving Kendall and have yet to agree on how much money the Pirates should pick up.

Given that Scott Spiezio has never played a full season at third base, Rich Aurilia isn't as good defensively as Carlos Guillen, Raul Ibanez is dramatically worse than Mike Cameron, and Randy Winn can't throw, how much worse is our defense going to be this year? — Jeff, Bellingham

Bob Finnigan: They will not be as strong defensively, but something had to give in the Mariners' quest for offense. Signing Aurilia and trading Guillen did weaken them a little at shortstop. The Mariners couldn't match the Mets' offer for Cameron, given Cameron's offensive struggles at Safeco Field. And Cameron's the best there is in center, so anyone else there would be a dropoff.

What's the truth, Finny and Larry? Is this ownership group just inept when it comes to negotiating with outside players, or are they only pretending to make a good-faith effort, when they would really prefer to fail and say "we tried." I'm of course talking about the Miguel Tejada negotiations. Here's a guy we needed that was right in front of us -- and our top offer was only $9 million (for an MVP?!) -- and we knew it was $3 million less than Baltimore. Thanks. — Bob, Seattle

B. F.: This ownership looks at long-term viability as a franchise, not ever wanting to be overextended, trying to remain competitive on an annual basis rather than taking a go-for-broke, one-shot approach. Odds of going-all-the-way success are probably about equal. They set a limit for Tejada and when Baltimore blew everyone away, Seattle let him go rather than compromise the company business principles.

With all the changes taking place in the AL West over the offseason, how do you see the division shaping up? While Oakland seems to have (yet again) lost a lot of pop in their lineup to free agency, their starting pitching will be stronger than ever. Anaheim signed one of the best players in baseball, but will their pitching live up to 2002 levels? And Texas seems poised for another last-place finish. Your thoughts? — Alex Tuttle, Washington, DC

L.S.: To start at the end, yes, go ahead and pencil the Rangers in for last place. I think the Angels are the team to beat, after a great winter. They picked up the best hitter (Vladimir Guerrero) and maybe the best starter (Bartolo Colon) on the market, plus another quality starter, Kelvim Escobar, and a power bat in Jose Guillen. Oakland is going to be hurt offensively by losing Miguel Tejada, but the A's strengthened an already-great rotation by adding Mark Redman. To me, the key to Oakland's season will be how well Arthur Rhodes closes, and how well rookie Bobby Crosby replaces Tejada at shortstop. The Mariners could finish anywhere from first to third.

Does Norm Charlton really stand a chance of being the second lefty out of the bullpen? Please tell me it won't be Ron Villone. — Damien Keyes, Lake Stevens

B. F.: We could tell you it won't be Ron Villone, but we might be lying. The Mariners are thought to have Villone near the top of their list. Norm is always on the list until his too-frequent arm problems take him off it. Charlton might be in camp, and we'll all find out. But don't count on seeing Norm on the mound again for the Mariners.

Why has all attention in recent days focused on speculation that the Mariners want to acquire Ivan Rodriguez and not someone like Magglio Ordonez of the White Sox? Does the thought of asking Ichiro to move to center field preclude seeking Ordonez out altogether? — Jim Taylor, Gig Harbor

B. F.: Free agents only take money -- trades such as Ordonez usually require giving up young talent and in Seattle's long-term approach to staying competitive, young talent is one huge key to continuing viability as an annual competitor.

There seems to be an increasing credibility gap between an ownership group that says their number one priority is to get to the World Series, and yet when even a godsend of cash lands in their laps, they don't go out and fill the team's offensive holes. How many times do the M's have to fade in the second half of the season because they need more bats before this group acts accordingly? — Bob, Seattle

B. F.: First of all, the cash pile isn't that big, and it came too late in the offseason to do too much. The Mariners undoubtedly want to add to their offense, and will be looking in spring training. But don't expect them to dig overly deep into their pockets, or their pile of pitching prospects. Take it for what it is, the organizational philosophy always leans toward the conservative, credible or not.

It seems to me the Mariners are missing the big picture. I follow the Mariners on the dish and go to the away games on the East Coast, and I think the big problem is they need a power pitcher in the No. 1 slot. Moyer might have won 21 games last year, but I think the team needs more of a hard-throwing guy, and another left-handed pitcher. What do you guys think? — Shawn Barletta, Hazleton, Pa.

B. F.: Seattle won 116 games in 2001 without an established No. 1 lead pitcher like you refer to. At that time it appeared Garcia was developing into one, and has since fallen. There are few of them, and they ain't cheap. Seattle is using an idea of spreading its money around rather than going for a star.

What are some good things to watch for during spring training? — Dave, Puyallup

L. S.: Aside from the Mariners, which I'll let Finny handle, it's always fun to see how soon it will be before a major crisis erupts in the Yankees' camp. And with guys like Gary Sheffield, Kevin Brown and Kenny Lofton, it could be volatile. It will also be interesting to see how Nomar and A-Rod react after being on the trade block all winter. I'm also eager to check out the newest Japanese star, Mets shortstop Kazuo Matsui, and his new teammate Mike Cameron.

B. F.: In Seattle's camp, it will be interesting to see how far the young pitching has advanced. If far enough, it will enhance the prospects of trades either in camp or during the season.

Is this the worst bench in major league history? If Edgar gets injured, what abysmal hitter will replace him at DH? And seriously, will any Mariners bench players get a pinch hit all year? — Jeff, Bellingham

B. F.: No question, the bench is thin at this point. But the bench was supposed to be one of the strengths last year, and barely came into play. The most likely DH if Edgar gets hurt would be outfielder Quinton McCracken. Another option is use Scott Spiezio at DH, and have Willie Bloomquist play third base.

What are your favorite "road" spring training ballparks, and the players' favorites? — Jimmy, Sammamish

L. S.: I like HoHoKam Park in Mesa, where the Cubs train. It's always packed, and there's always a great atmosphere. I miss the days of the old band-box spring training stadiums that had a lot more character than the new complexes, like the old Scottsdale Stadium, the old stadium in Sarasota, Fla., that had chicken wire behind home plate. Another current favorite, and one of the best old-timey stadiums is the Pirates' park in Bradenton, Fla. The Tigers' facility in Lakeland, Fla., is also nice, and the Dodgers' camp at Vero Beach, Fla., is great.

My least-favorite park was in Yuma, Ariz., where the Padres trained. The park wasn't that bad, but Yuma is.

B. F.: The players' favorite "road" parks are the ones closest to their home park. My least favorite was the Brewers' old park in Sun City. The park featured a stone wall that Donnell Nixon broke his leg on.

We keep hearing it's Edgar's last year -- is this really it? — Kate, Seattle

B. F.: Who knows? With another good year, and a good team, he just might come back.

What will the Mariners' lineup look like this season? I heard that Ichiro isn't going to be the leadoff hitter. What's going on there? What would you say is the Mariners lineup in the regular season? — Henry, Seattle

B. F.: Ichiro has made it clear that he prefers to lead off. Unless his feelings have changed, he will lead off again. Here's a best guess at the Mariners' batting order:
1. RF Ichiro
2. CF Randy Winn
3. 2B Bret Boone
4. LF Raul Ibanez
5. DH Edgar Martinez
6. 1B John Olerud
7. 3B Scott Spiezio
8. SS Rich Aurilia
9. C Ben Davis/Dan Wilson

Larry, you mention the potential for making a deal for Ordonez. Is this or any other deal being explored? — Ethan Coyle, Kirkland

L. S.: My take was more hypothetical at this point. I do know that the White Sox would like to trim payroll, and Magglio Ordonez will make $14 million this season, then become a free agent.

B. F.: If the Mariners look at Ordonez, it would probably only be after checking out the possibility of trading for Kansas City's Carlos Beltran or Milwaukee's Geoff Jenkins.

Who do you think will be most improved this year in the Mariners rotation? — Mark C., Seattle

B. F.: The smart guess would be Ryan Franklin, if he gets more offensive help than he had last season, which is what the Mariners spent the winter trying to assemble. The longshot guess would be Freddy Garcia, going into his free-agent season.

Can you guys honestly give us an opinion, and not the press release, about what you would have done differently this offseason? — Jim, Tacoma

L. S.: I would have made a statement signing, such as Miguel Tejada or even Vladimir Guerrero to show fans and players that the team was serious about taking the next step. All the talk about payroll limitations does get tiring. This team is No. 2 in revenue, and it needs to act like a big-revenue team.

B. F.: I'd have signed Vladimir Guerrero, no question, and moved Ichiro to center field. I would not have kept Winn or Garcia, to have helped pay for Guerrero, and I'd have been willing to take a chance that a kid pitcher would have developed. Vlad is a once-in-a-decade type, and was worth a strong bid, if nothing else. However, the Mariners' basic philosophy is long term. They did give it a shot with the Cirillo trade, and they got bit, bad.

John Olerud's numbers are in decline. What does the future hold for this position? — John Brownell, Burke, Va.

B. F.: Olerud likely will retire after this season, the last year on his contract. It is likely Scott Spiezio will move from third to first in the future. Or, if Spiezio gets comfortable at third, Raul Ibanez is a possibility at first.

Bob Melvin said during this offseason that he should have shown more of his true self in the dugout last year. Do you think we are going to see an obvious change from him this year, or another (slightly altered) version of the stoic and understated Melvin? — Jon, Seattle

B. F.: There's no question Melvin let them play last season, and it didn't work. He will be more hands on and likely more vocal this season.

Do you think the Mariners' chronic late-season fades can be attributed to age? — Al, Tacoma

B. F.: Hardly at all. It's far more likely it was an emotional letdown that came when the team did not acquire help at the trade deadline while other clubs, especially Oakland, always seemed to make deals.

What position players in the farm system have a shot at making the roster? — Dan, New Orleans

B. F.: There is no position player in the farm system who will likely make a big contribution this season. In the future, the best bets are outfielder Chris Snelling, if he can stay healthy, possibly outfielder Jamal Strong and shortstop Jose Lopez. Third baseman Justin Leone came on last season. Greg Dobbs was rated ahead of Leone until last season, when he tore up a knee. Another possibility is Shin-Soo Choo, who is rated a can't-miss outfielder, and is still climbing the farm system.

The Florida Marlins, who are only 10 years old, have won the World Series twice. The Mariners, on the other hand, are 27 years old and still haven't even played for the World Series. What are the Marlins doing right that the Mariners aren't? — Derek, Tampa, Fla.

L. S.: The first time the Marlins won, in 1997, they went very heavily in the free-agent market in a failed attempt to land a new stadium deal through the team's success. They got the success, but not the stadium, and owner Wayne Huizenga immediately disbanded the team, and they were very bad for another five years. Last year was a result of a lot of the kids they got in those post-'97 deals developing, plus a lot of good drafts afterward, and our old friend Pudge Rodriguez going crazy in the playoffs. The Mariners have arguably been a better team for the long haul, but they don't have the championships to show for it.

B. F.: It brings up a good question: Would you rather have a team like the Mariners with a chance every year, or a World Series team every six years that is dismal in-between?

After looking at all these negatives, do the M's have any shot of making the playoffs? — Kevin Dubrow, Monroe, Wash.

B. F.: Of course they do, they're not a bad team, even if they didn't get Guerrero, Tejada or Pudge. When you have pitching, you always have a chance, and they have pitching.

L. S.: Sure. They won 93 games last year, which is more than the Twins, Cubs and even the world-champion Marlins. If a few things break right, there's no reason they can't win in the 90s and make the playoffs.