It's crunchtime for monorail as key decisions come due

The latest ads from the Seattle Monorail Project assure the public that "an amazing new transportation solution is coming soon."

Is this a fact or wishful thinking?

To meet its ambitious schedule for beginning construction by the end of this year on the 14-mile elevated train from West Seattle to Ballard, the monorail agency must solve a number of big design, political and financial puzzles during the upcoming months.

The Seattle Popular Monorail Authority, which hopes to make a final decision on the train's route in the next two weeks, is still wrestling with such controversial questions as the size of the massive support columns and whether the trains should run through Seattle Center.

Opponents are organizing a petition drive to demand a revote on the monorail.

And collections from a car-tab tax — the sole source of funding for the monorail's construction — are one-third less than what was originally projected.

Finances will be a key issue when the Seattle City Council begins considering the project.

Monorail officials have asked the council to fast-track the project this spring, even before the construction bids are in, by tentatively approving permits to build on city streets.

Council President Jan Drago, a monorail supporter, says the council wants to ensure there is enough money coming in so that the agency can deliver the same monorail system that voters approved in November 2002. The city is hiring its own experts to study the project's financial plans.

"The monorail will be the biggest project, bar none, for the council this year," Drago says. "It will require a massive amount of our time to do due diligence."

Another important verdict on the project is due by mid-June. That's when a pair of construction teams — one offering roomy Hitachi trains from Japan, the other with sleeker trains from Bombardier of Canada — are expected to submit their bids.

"Until we get a bid price, none of us are going to know whether this is a doable project," said monorail Finance Director Jonathan Buchter. "We think that it is."

Here are some key issues facing the monorail:

Is there enough money?

City voters approved an annual tax of up to 1.4 percent of vehicle value — $280 for a car worth $20,000 — to build a $1.75 billion line. The monorail team chose not to seek federal aid for the system, unlike the Sound Transit light-rail line and many other mass-transit projects.

But local tax collections have fallen far short of what was anticipated because of flawed estimates of the number of vehicles in Seattle, as well as efforts by many residents to avoid the tax by registering their cars outside city limits.

The agency hopes the Legislature or the state Department of Licensing will help by passing regulations to crack down on evasion.

It is also looking to cut costs to $1.6 billion.

The bulk of those savings would come from building four miles of the line with a single track, instead of dual tracks. Station sizes could be reduced by using elevators instead of escalators. To avoid costly relocations of power lines beneath the street, the agency would widen the sidewalks a few feet and plant the columns there.

But other costs have risen, in part because of features proposed since the vote.

Nonconstruction spending is expected to soar to $119 million for staff salaries, public outreach, preliminary design, engineering, legal work and other administration for 2003 and 2004. The voter-approved plan had earmarked just $79 million for those costs through 2020.

The budget for real-estate expenses is now more than twice the original forecast.

Additional "turnback" switches have been proposed at Seattle Center and King Street, to provide more frequent service downtown. A sky bridge might also be added between a Fifth Avenue station and Westlake Center.

Monorail planners also want to open an initial segment of the monorail from Interbay to Westlake Center by December 2007, two years before the entire line is to open. City Council members say one bid team has complained that the early opening will add significant costs to the project.

Despite the add-ons, monorail construction director Tom Horkan says other factors are keeping the project affordable.

Inflation is lower than expected, while interest rates on bond sales have stayed near record lows. Competition remains intense among construction firms for contracts, he said.

The agency has done more preliminary engineering and soil testing than originally anticipated, an investment that Chairman Tom Weeks hopes will reduce the risk of costly surprises during construction.

The original monorail plan called for a $366 million contingency fund to cover unforeseen construction costs, agency reserves and sales taxes paid by the builders. However, Weeks said the agency won't know how much remains in reserve until the construction bids come in.

"We know we have less money," he said.

Tom Stone, an executive with the Bombardier team, remains bullish on the project. But he said his team hasn't determined whether it can meet the anticipated budget.

"It's crunch time," he said.

How big are the columns?

The size of the support columns is one of the key design issues.

Monorail campaigners originally promised that the beams supporting the trains would be 4 feet wide or less, maybe as thin as 3 feet. Leaner columns would make the Green Line less obtrusive than the 4½-by-4½ foot posts that support the existing one-mile monorail from Seattle Center to Westlake Center.

However, the instructions to bid teams give no size limits for most of the route. Executive Director Joel Horn's latest proposal calls for approximately 6-foot-wide columns downtown, if concrete is used.

Narrower bases are possible but would require more expensive steel construction, which bid teams are being asked to offer as an option downtown.

The Green Line's bi-level "iris" columns, invented by designer Alan Hart, provide another challenge, because they position the northbound train several feet higher than the southbound train. With two levels, passengers would be able to reach either train from platforms on the same side of the street.

But the staggered tracks would block views of Elliott Bay in two places. To reduce that problem, the agency proposes tapering the iris stalks between stations, so the tracks revert to a side-by-side layout in some parts of downtown.

Last year, the bidders complained they may need custom designs for multiple iris shapes, raising the price. But Horkan predicts the bidders will figure out an efficient way to fabricate the irises.

"I've found great creativity on both teams. We're going to give them leeway to build creativity in their approach," he said.

Does single-tracking help?

Monorail executives say they can save $100 million to $140 million by converting four miles from dual tracks to a single track, where converging trains would take turns sharing one rail.

Picture a dad who carries one toddler on his shoulders, instead of dangling one child from each arm. There's less back strain. Same goes for single track. With a lighter and better balanced weight, thinner columns can do the job. Builders would pour less concrete.

The idea emerged last fall as a way to make the Green Line look better on the sidewalks of Ballard, Horn said. Single beams are also planned at Sodo, the West Seattle Bridge and California Avenue Southwest. "When we found out it would save more than $100 million, that just became another reason to do it," Horn told the City Council.

Monorail board member Cleve Stockmeyer argues that the greater passenger capacity of a twin-track system will be needed if the aging Alaskan Way Viaduct is shut down or the line is extended to the Northgate or Broadview neighborhoods.

"More is better today, as well as in the future," he said. "You have less crowding, better bicycle access. And it's about people's expectations and what they thought they were getting."

Single tracking adds 3 minutes to get downtown from West Seattle or Crown Hill, reducing the monorail's time savings compared to a bus.

Trains would arrive 6 to 8 minutes apart in those neighborhoods, less than the four- to six-minute frequency promised in the original plan, but better than most light-rail systems. The system would still be able to carry the expected riders through 2020.

The monorail agency has also left open for study the idea of converting another three miles to single track, through Interbay and across a Ballard monorail bridge — but it has not proposed doing so.

Where will the tracks go?

The monorail agency has chosen 18 of the 19 station sites and the route is "98 percent" settled, Horn said.

Most of the station locations are uncontroversial: the Alaska Junction stop is tucked behind a Petco store, and the Belltown stop avoids demolishing the Seattle Glassblowing Studio. Pioneer Square neighbors can hardly wait to get rid of the "Sinking Ship" parking garage and have it replaced by a proposed monorail stop at Second Avenue and Yesler Way.

The hardest choices were saved for last.

The decision on whether the train should run through Seattle Center has been so politically volatile that Mayor Greg Nickels and the monorail agency first postponed it until after the 2002 election. Nearly 18 months later, the City Council still remains divided on the issue.

The monorail agency has proposed having the tracks wind around the International Fountain and follow the old monorail course through the Experience Music Project museum. Supporters say that plan, backed by the Seattle Center management and a nearby neighborhood group, would encourage tourism and keep the tracks away from the busy theater entrances on Mercer Street.

City Councilman Peter Steinbrueck wants an alternate route outside the Center grounds. Otherwise, he says, the monorail will severely disrupt the city's premier gathering place.

On Second Avenue downtown, where the monorail might travel over the sidewalks and within five feet of some buildings, some landlords contend they will be financially damaged if tracks obstruct sunlight at second- and third-floor windows.

"If you put the monorail five feet away from an office building, you're going to harm the value of those floors which would be most directly affected by that," said Don Wise, managing director of Metzler Realty Advisors and an agent for Millennium Tower at Second and Columbia. He is also a member of OnTrack, a monorail critics group.

The agency is offering no compensation for such problems. Monorail officials say that in Portland, San Francisco and Vancouver, land values rose because rail transit provided better access.

Another question mark is whether the station at Second and Madison Street will be ready by the time the rest of the route opens in 2009. The preferred site is owned by the federal government, which is not subject to condemnation proceedings and has no obligation to sell.

If there is no stop between Pike Street and Yesler Way, the city's advisory Monorail Review Panel questions how well the line would serve commuters.

In Delridge, the staff listened to neighborhood complaints and suggested moving the station to the Nucor Steel mill property and away from Longfellow Creek. The steel-mill station site is more convenient to Alki and Admiral neighborhoods but would take longer to reach by bus from the lower-income Westwood and White Center residents to the south.

Can it cross

the West Seattle Bridge?

Monorail backers have always envisioned the tracks going on the existing bridge, instead of on a separate monorail bridge that would cost $80 million to $100 million to build.

It's a unique engineering challenge.

No other city in the Northwest has attempted to build an elevated transit route on an existing bridge, according to Bill Martin, leader of the city's West Seattle Bridge review team.

Builders must strengthen the structure, to guarantee the additional weight won't crack the bridge deck in an earthquake.

"The addition of the monorail has little effect on the seismic rating" as long as the pillars and bridges are strengthened, according to a report by Bechtel Jacobs, a joint engineering venture that conducted studies for the monorail agency.

Martin said the city's technical team has not approved the report yet and studies are still in an early phase.

He said some sampling may be required so that construction workers aren't hindered by reinforcing steel within the concrete bridge: "They start to drill and they hit rebar."

The City Council plans to sign a tentative agreement for the monorail to use the bridge this spring. But before the Green Line gets a final construction permit, the city will require the crossing to be completely designed, Martin said.

Mike Lindblom: 206-515-5631 or mlindblom@seattletimes.com