M's 18-year-old has the right stuff
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Felix Hernandez is almost too good to be true. He signed an enormous contract while barely old enough to drive and, less than two years later, is considered among the best pitchers in the minor leagues, about the time most kids his age graduate from high school.
As scouts have repeatedly told Inland Empire manager Daren Brown, they can't believe they are watching a guy who turned 18 on April 8. There was even some doubt about the authenticity of the hard-throwing Venezuelan's birth records. But the Mariners have checked. He's the real deal.
"At 18 years old, you would not expect him to show the kind of maturity and poise he has showed on the mound," Brown said of his ace right-hander. "That's above and beyond his stuff."
Hernandez has a fastball that reaches 97 mph. He also has an above-average curveball and changeup.
"I can't compare him to anyone else at that age," Brown said. "I know Pedro Martinez was young when he came up (age 20), but ... "
But when? The answer is: Hold on for a while.
"I hate to put a timetable on players," said Benny Looper, the Mariners' director of player development/scouting. "So many things can happen along the way. As an 18-year-old, you don't know. You have to stay on top of it. (But) as good as his fastball is compared to other pitchers and as mature as he is, he could move pretty quick."
He's not going to fit into the Mariners' rotation this year and perhaps not even next season, but that can't be ruled out. It will depend on how flexible the Mariners' conservative approach will be. He won't be babied, but the club will keep an eye on pitch counts and innings.
"He's on the same program as anybody else. With an arm like that, it's our job to understand what kind of arm we've got. We do," Brown said. "We have to keep getting him better and keep him healthy."
As with most of the better prospects, Hernandez will be periodically evaluated — generally at midseason. The question that will be asked at that time, Looper said, is:
"Is he overmatched or does he need to move up a level? The biggest concern at that age is you want to protect him, but not hold him back."
Hernandez could find his way to Class AA San Antonio before the season is over. With the Class A 66ers this season, Hernandez is 3-2 with a 3.67 earned-run average. He has 46 strikeouts and just nine walks in 41-2/3 innings.
Hernandez has struggled in his past two starts, but as Brown said of his start last Tuesday (six innings, 10 hits, two runs), "He still gave us a chance to win the ballgame. With a 95, 97 mph fastball, you might think he's just a thrower, but he's not. He understands pitching. Even in a bad start, he showed he knows what it takes."
Hernandez was signed in July 2002 for $710,000, a hefty sum for a 16-year-old, indicating his potential.
"He was a known commodity, and we did pay a sizable bonus," Looper said. "Sometimes you're right; sometimes you're wrong. It was one guy (scout) Bob (Engle) didn't want to get away from us."
Hernandez began his pro career with rookie league Everett last summer. He was 5-0 with an 0.82 ERA to start the season. He ended up 7-2 with a 2.23 ERA, with 73 strikeouts in 55 innings and a .218 opponent batting average.
He was promoted to Class A Wisconsin in the final two weeks. He made two starts for the Timber Rattlers, striking out 18 in 14 innings.
Hernandez is 6 feet 3 and 180 pounds, so he has room to grow into his body.
"He's got a fastball that moves, a sinker. To be honest with you, he can do about anything he wants to do," Brown said. "He's fun to watch."
Bob Sherwin: 206-464-8286 or bsherwin@seattletimes.com