Hall of Fame induction is no certainty for Martinez
The Mariners used Edgar Martinez's retirement news conference yesterday as a bully pulpit for the official kickoff of the Edgar Hall of Fame Campaign.
Virtually every member of the front office touted Martinez as a surefire future resident of Cooperstown, and Jay Buhner almost seemed incredulous that his former teammate's credentials should even be questioned.
"Oh, hands down he's a Hall of Famer," Buhner said. "I don't think that should even be a question. I think all you guys (media) know that. That's just a matter of time. He'll get in for sure. That's a guarantee. A guarantee."
Ah, that it should be so easy. I'll say up front that Edgar has my vote, one that I will feel extremely comfortable casting. In my mind, Edgar is a worthy Hall of Famer, the best ever at his position, derided as the designated hitter might be.
There are any number of powerful statistical arguments one could make, various combinations of numbers that show him to be the equal of a legion of current Hall of Famers.
But in the end, for me, it comes down, as always in these considerations, to a gut feeling. Specifically, a certainty that he ranked with the greatest right-handed hitters of his generation, arguably as the best, and more important, that he was regarded as such by his peers.
"When we would talk about the greatest left-handed hitter, we'd talk about (Wade) Boggs, (George) Brett, (Don) Mattingly, (Tony) Gwynn. But when we talked about the greatest right-handed hitter, it was always Edgar, hands down," said Mariners manager Bob Melvin.
I'm a believer. But the other 379 or so members of the Baseball Writers Association of America — 75 percent of those 10-year members who vote in that year's election — are far from the guarantee Buhner thinks, no matter how strongly the Mariners or anyone else lobbies on his behalf.
I called up five of my writing colleagues yesterday, an admittedly unscientific poll. But four of those five, all of whom were eligible voters, were either leaning against Martinez, or had already decided against voting for him.
"I think he has a much better chance to be one of those guys that falls off the ballot early than a guy that gets much support," said Phil Rogers, national baseball writer for the Chicago Tribune, who is solidly in the "no" category.
"He just came to the big leagues and became an elite hitter too late in his career, and didn't pile up enough career stats. To me, it's not the DH. I'd certainly vote for a DH. But I think Harold Baines has a better case than Edgar.
"I think he's popular in his region, and like a Kirby Puckett or a (Paul) Molitor, he probably deserves support for how he plays the game. I just don't think there's enough there for me to give it a second thought."
Mariners chairman Howard Lincoln vowed yesterday that the Mariners would be "proactive" in their attempts to boost Edgar's Hall of Fame chances. Good for them, although those campaigns can backfire if they're perceived as too much of a hard sell.
Tim Raetzloff, who maintains a Web site devoted to advocating Martinez's Hall of Fame chances, pointed out in an e-mail yesterday that Martinez's credentials, beyond his numbers, include his major role in saving baseball in Seattle. Raetzloff cited not just Edgar's epic double in the decisive victory over the Yankees in the 1995 playoffs, but his seven runs batted in the previous game, a must-win for Seattle.
"Yankee Stadium may be the House That Ruth Built," Raetzloff wrote. "Edgar did one better. There would be no baseball in Seattle if not for Edgar."
Raetzloff also noted several of Edgar's statistical benchmarks. He is one of 17 players in history with at least a .300 batting average, .400 on-base percentage and .500 slugging percentage. Thirteen of the 14 retired players in that category — all but the banned Shoeless Joe Jackson — are in the Hall.
Martinez is also one of six players to have at least a .300 average, .400 on-base percentage, 500 doubles, 300 homers and 1,000 walks. The other five — Stan Musial, Rogers Hornsby, Babe Ruth, Lou Gehrig and Ted Williams — are in the Hall.
Martinez, of course, will require voters to reconcile the two great raps against him — that his cumulative statistics, including fewer than 2,300 hits, fall short of election (primarily because he didn't become a full-time starter until he was 27), and that his status as a DH weakens his case.
Another problem will no doubt be the proliferation of offense in Martinez's generation that will make some of his accomplishments look less impressive with each passing year. As an example, Martinez headed into this year ranked 24th all-time in the fashionable category of OPS — on-base percentage plus slugging percentage. His mark of .952 ranked sixth highest among right-handed hitters, behind only Jimmie Foxx (1.0376), Hank Greenberg (1.0169), Hornsby (1.0103), Mark McGwire (.9823) and Joe DiMaggio (.9771), among retired players. Only McGwire isn't in the Hall, and only because he's not yet eligible.
But the other part of this statistic is that in the top 24 of all-time OPS, more than half the list consists of active players — 13, including righties Manny Ramirez, Frank Thomas, Vladimir Guerrero, Alex Rodriguez, Jeff Bagwell and Mike Piazza, all of whom rank ahead of Edgar. As those players retire, it won't take long before Edgar gets lost in the blizzard of stats.
Rob Neyer of ESPN, who has replaced his mentor, Bill James, as the leading statistical analyst of his day, once endorsed Martinez for the Hall, but now believes his qualifications fall just short. Furthermore, Neyer believes even more strongly that Martinez will not be supported by the electorate. Those are ominous conclusions for Martinez.
"To me, if Dale Murphy and Ryne Sandberg and Alan Trammell, all of whom were considered almost sure Hall of Famers when they were active, can't make it, I don't see how Edgar can get voted in," said Neyer in a phone interview yesterday.
The Mariners, commendably, are determined to do all they can to make Edgar Martinez a Hall of Famer. They have a little over five years to get it done. Despite all the sincere platitudes being issued yesterday, their candidate rates as a distinct underdog.
Larry Stone: 206-464-3146 or lstone@seattletimes.com
DH leaders | |
Edgar Martinez has the highest batting average among designated hitters with at least 1,000 at-bats, and has more home runs and RBI than any other DH: | |
Batting average | |
Player | Avg. |
Edgar Martinez | .316 |
Paul Molitor | .308 |
Hal McRae | .294 |
Harold Baines | .291 |
Frank Thomas | .280 |
Home runs | |
Player | HR |
Edgar Martinez | 239 |
Harold Baines | 235 |
Don Baylor | 219 |
Jose Canseco | 208 |
Chili Davis | 200 |
Runs batted in | |
Player | RBI |
Edgar Martinez | 986 |
Harold Baines | 978 |
Hal McRae | 823 |
Don Baylor | 801 |
Chili Davis | 736 |