Three reasons for cheer as the end draws near

Here are three humble predictions for an election now mercifully only 10 days away:

• Democrat John Kerry will capture the White House. The surprise will be the number of Republicans who help him win the presidency.

• Democrat Christine Gregoire will be elected governor, as voters recognize one of the best-prepared candidates in state history.

• Republican Rob McKenna's combination of intellect and temperament will attract Democrats to his side and victory.

Dismay at President Bush's war of choice in Iraq crosses party lines. Legions of people are upset by what were either grotesque errors of judgment or was delusional hubris leading up to the war. The failure to anticipate or plan for the bloody aftermath raises fundamental issues of competence.

One name illustrates the administration's attitude and failure: Gen. Eric Shinseki.

He was the Army chief of staff swept aside after he testified it would take hundreds of thousands of troops to keep the peace in Iraq. His advice was ignored by an administration that refused to acknowledge any deviation from its preconceived notions. It would become a familiar pattern.

Iraq is important, but I hear from traditional, conservative Republicans — many with a lot of gray in their hair — who are appalled by the deficits spawned by the president's unfettered spending and simultaneous tax cuts. Likewise, they are perplexed by the failure of an apparently neutered GOP majority in Congress to apply any political or fiscal brakes on the White House.

In 2001, the forecast was for surpluses of $1.3 trillion through 2004. Instead, the Washington Post reports the government fell into $850 billion of red ink. Yes, the country slumped into a recession, the 2001 terrorists attacks drove up expenses and the stock-market bubble burst, but half the deficit was attributable to policy choices.

Here is a fact to ponder from the Washington Post: The U.S. government now spends more on annual interest payments on the federal debt than it spends on education, homeland security, justice and law enforcement, veterans, international aid and space exploration combined.

Beyond deficits as far as the eye can see, many Republicans are angry at the shredding of global alliances built over 50 years at a tremendous expense in lives, political energy and federal treasure.

The reputation of the United States in the world is in tatters, and generations who fought and sacrificed are not amused by neoconservatives in the White House and Pentagon with visions of an arrogant American empire.

A torrent of commissions, investigations and panels reinforce the notion of a president who plunges ahead unthinking, but with his mind made up.

John Kerry showed himself in the presidential debates to be an articulate and thoughtful alternative to an incumbent way too full of surprises.

Closer to home, Democrat Christine Gregoire is superbly prepared to lead the state as governor. Unlike her opponent Dino Rossi's thin résumé, Gregoire brings an enviable and quantifiable record of achievement and management experience. Her work as director of the state Department of Ecology and attorney general was excellent preparation for the promotion she has earned.

Gregoire has the capacity not only to lead but also to inspire. She will be as compelling a public figure for the Legislature to follow as she will be for young girls who quietly notice who is sitting at the head of the table.

Given the failures of judgment and competence in national politics, I am very reassured to have candidates the quality of Republican Rob McKenna running statewide. McKenna, a King County councilman, will be an excellent attorney general.

McKenna and his Democratic opponent, Deborah Senn, both acquitted themselves well Tuesday night in a debate sponsored by The Seattle Times editorial page and The City Club at the Seattle Public Library.

Senn, who served two terms as state insurance commissioner, is not the screeching caricature painted by her critics. I just see McKenna fitting into the Gregoire mold, who fit into the Slade Gorton mold of smart, nonpartisan legal work on behalf of Washington citizens.

McKenna offers a package of legal skills and experience with local-government service that connects him to a broad range of issues. I've disagreed with McKenna on public policy over the years, but he has always been thoughtful, principled and professional.

Kerry, Gregoire and McKenna. Three solid predictions worth the potential grief.

Lance Dickie's column appears regularly on editorial pages of The Times. His e-mail address is ldickie@seattletimes.com