January weather delivered classic El Niño performance

Heavy rains with record-breaking temperatures in January usually mean just one thing: It's a classic El Niño year, says meteorologist Julie Holcombe.

January delivered up just 10 days when low temperatures at Seattle-Tacoma International Airport dipped below freezing.

And nowhere was the trend more evident than in the nearby mountains: The snowpack hasn't been this low in almost 30 years, says Holcombe of the National Weather Service office at Sand Point in Seattle.

Usually during an El Niño year, winter storms track up from the South Pacific and smack the Southwest, Holcombe says.

"This is why Nevada has gotten anomalous amount of snowfall and why California has been getting all its rain," she said.

State climatologist Philip Mote last week said most basins in the Cascade Mountains have a snowpack that is 20 percent to 30 percent of average.

In more than half of the areas measured, the January snowpack was the lowest in 28 years, he said.

Record-high temperatures were recorded at Sea-Tac on Jan. 18, 19 and 23 — with Jan. 19 hitting a springlike 62 degrees.

The average high in January was 47.4 degrees, compared to a norm of 45 degrees.

The lows for the month also inched up: 36.8 degrees was the average; the historical average low is 34.8 degrees.

Almost 4-1/2 inches of rain was recorded, but more than half of that came Jan. 17 — setting a record of 2.39 inches for the day.

With such a skimpy snowpack in the mountains, should we be concerned about drought this summer?

Not just yet, says Holcombe. Even though we're in the classic El Niño pattern, it is still winter.

"We'll have to revisit come March," she said.

This week's forecast has been for more days of sun breaks and mild temperatures — in the upper 40s and low 50s — with patchy fog developing overnight. But for the weekend there's a chance of rain in the lowlands — and maybe, just maybe, some snow in the mountains.

Suesan Whitney Henderson: 206-464-2296 or swhenderson@seattletimes.com