Gasoline tax fuels backlash

OLYMPIA — Three months after patting themselves on the back for passing the biggest transportation tax package in state history, state lawmakers and their supporters now fear Initiative 912 will take it all away.

The initiative would repeal a 9.5-cent-per-gallon gas tax passed by the Legislature earlier this year, and likely pull the plug on hundreds of projects to improve roads around the state. The $8.5 billion package earmarks money to help replace the Alaskan Way Viaduct and the Highway 520 floating bridge and pays for scores of other improvements across the state. The tax is phased in over four years; the first 3-cent increase took effect July 1.

"The concern by many in the business community [is] that this [initiative] may be one of those juggernauts that's impossible to stop," said Duke Schaub, lobbyist for the Associated General Contractors of Washington. The group lobbied lawmakers to pass the tax.

If true, it could spell the end of efforts to tackle major transportation projects in the state for years, Democratic leaders in the Legislature said.

Brett Bader, a spokesman for the I-912 campaign, disagreed and said the Legislature has only itself to blame for the initiative. He argues the transportation package doesn't have enough accountability built in and doesn't inspire any confidence the money will be spent wisely. "There's a lot to hate."

I-912 sponsors collected more than 420,000 signatures in just 32 days using volunteers, a startling feat that appears likely to secure the measure a spot on the ballot.

"I think a lot of folks are in shock trying to figure out what that means," said Don Brunell, president of the Association of Washington Business (AWB). Brunell said his group doesn't have a position on the gas tax.

Initiative opponents are regrouping to figure out ways to combat the measure, but Brunell says he thinks there's some hesitancy in the business community to throw lots of money into a campaign, given how similar efforts have failed in the past.

Business, including the AWB, and labor fought to defeat Initiative 695 in 1999 and lost. The measure was aimed at eliminating the state motor-vehicle excise tax. And in 2002 they fought to pass Referendum 51, a measure to increase the state gas tax by 9 cents to fund road improvements, and lost badly.

"When I look at it, after being through these wars many times, there is a sense of déjà vu," Brunell said.

Mistrust of DOT?

Steve Mullin, president of the Washington Roundtable, said it's not clear yet how major corporations will deal with I-912. The Roundtable includes high-profile companies such as Boeing and Microsoft and endorsed the transportation tax package passed by the Legislature. "We're still in the early stages of mobilizing," Mullin said.

Rep. Ed Murray, D-Seattle, chairman of the House Transportation Committee, said I-912 can be beat. "I don't take it for granted that it's going to pass," he said. "I think if a campaign is run that's county by county that shows people at the local level the roads that they're getting, it has a chance" of being defeated.

The success I-912 had in collecting signatures is being attributed to a bunch of things, including rising gas prices, general hostility to tax increases, and the controversy surrounding the 2004 gubernatorial election in which Christine Gregoire beat Republican Dino Rossi by only 133 votes. Plus, KVI talk-radio hosts John Carlson and Kirby Wilbur endorsed the initiative on air.

Bader, a veteran Republican political consultant, said there's also a deep mistrust of the state Department of Transportation and its ability to spend the money effectively. Some of that wariness comes from incidents that aren't the department's fault, such as past cost overruns at Sound Transit and the current controversy swirling around the Seattle Monorail Project, he said. "It all gets lumped together in people's minds."

Donna Ireland, owner of Donna's Cafe in the small town of Pomeroy in Garfield County, said she quickly filled two petitions with signatures, "no sweat." If the petitions hadn't arrived late, "we would have filled up more."

"We've got so many taxes that it's just about to tax me out of business. Gas is just one more tax on top of it," Ireland said, adding that a lot of her customers feel the same way. "We know where it's always spent, and that's over on I-5."

Monorail could be issue

A poll by Seattle pollster Stuart Elway in June found that 55 percent of those surveyed statewide support I-912. The measure had strong support in Eastern Washington, where 65 percent indicated they'd vote to repeal the gas tax. Seattle was the only place in the state where the measure was losing, with 63 percent opposed.

The survey was taken before new controversy broke out regarding the Seattle Monorail Project.

The monorail could become a factor that works in favor of I-912, said Don McDonough, a Democratic pollster in Seattle. The project had a public meltdown recently after a now-discarded finance plan revealed the monorail agency would have collected more than $11.4 billion in taxes over 50 years to finance a $2.1 billion line.

The hullabaloo that followed could sour Seattle voters on new taxes for transportation, he said.

"If Seattle starts voting against transportation measures because of the monorail then all hope is lost, because you have to have the base of the Seattle vote in King County to pass anything," McDonough said. "I don't know how angry voters are about this. I certainly worry that it's possible."

Back to drawing board

Bader said I-912 is intended to send a message to lawmakers to come back with a better transportation plan.

"We've got to solve the congestion problem. I'd hope they get right back to work. Our goal is to send them back to the drawing board, not to scare them away from ever doing anything," Bader said

I-912 doesn't offer an alternative plan, but Bader said what supporters want is pretty simple. "We're looking for the Department of Transportation to make reducing traffic congestion its No. 1 priority and to restore accountability to how they budget their tax dollars and build projects," he said. "People are willing to pay a little more for a solution that works."

State Transportation Secretary Doug MacDonald said his agency is completing projects on time and within budget across the state. "There is a cultural bias here about government that we're having a hard time speaking to," he said.

Rep. Murray said lawmakers would be unlikely to take risky gas-tax votes again anytime soon if the initiative is approved by voters. "If this thing passes, I think it's probably over for transportation for a long time."

Washington State University political scientist Lance LeLoup agreed.

"What is the point of doing a politically courageous thing ... and approve an unpopular gas tax to improve transportation if it's going to be repealed and your opponent in the next election is going to beat you with it?" he said.

One consequence of I-912's passing could be an effort in the Legislature to break state transportation funding into geographic regions that are responsible for roads in their own area, said House Majority Leader Lynn Kessler, D-Hoquiam.

Historically, urban areas of the state, with their dense populations, have subsidized road work in more rural areas with smaller tax bases.

"The public apparently is not interested in our policies. We could form a new policy that has everybody responsible for their own areas," she said. "That would lead to people having to tax themselves to get a bridge repaired or road paved."

Senate Minority Leader Bill Finkbeiner, R-Kirkland, called that a "terrible idea."

"Some people get frustrated when we pass laws and they get overturned. I kind of feel like that's the people's right," said Finkbeiner, who voted to pass the gas tax in the Legislature. "If that's what they want to do, I'll come back and try to find something that works better."

Andrew Garber: 360-943-9882 or agarber@seattletimes.com