M's attendance: Losing the numbers game

Mariners president Chuck Armstrong wound up chatting with Richie Sexson on the team's flight back to Seattle at the end of their last road trip.

According to Armstrong, Sexson pointed out the sparse attendance in Toronto and Detroit, then marveled at the thriving Safeco Field crowds this season.

"The fans gave us a mulligan this year," Sexson said.

"Richie," replied Armstrong, "you weren't here last year. The fans gave us two mulligans."

Sexson's apt reply, as reported by Armstrong: "They might not give us another one."

Mariners fans have been rightly praised for their continuing support of a subpar baseball team, one heading for its second straight last-place finish. They will draw upward of 2.6 million fans, far more than any 90-loss team except the Dodgers, who rank second in the majors at 3.6 million. In the American League, only the Yankees, Angels and Red Sox have drawn more.

And yet, a closer look at the Mariners' attendance trends shows at what an important juncture they stand.

In 2001, the year they won 116 games, the Mariners led the majors in attendance at 3,507,975, an average of 43,308 a game — 91.9 percent of capacity. And in 2002, the figure rose slightly, to 3,540,482, again best in the majors at 92.8 percent of capacity.

But they fell to second in baseball (to the Yankees) in 2003 (3,269,268), 10th in 2004 (2,942,054), and, through Friday's games, stood 11th in the majors (just a few hundred per game away from 13th) this year with an average draw of 33,708 (70.5 percent of capacity).

In other words, in four seasons since 2001, the average attendance has dropped 10,000 per game — nearly 25 percent. Season tickets have fallen over that time by about 4,000, from a peak of 21,000 to about 17,000 this year. On two straight days on the current homestand, the club established all-time lows for games at Safeco Field.

The Mariners should know full well the tenuous nature of fan passion. All they have to do is look at the attendance figures of the Orioles, Blue Jays and Rockies, all of whom went through a five-year or more stretch of playing virtually to capacity, but now rank 14th, 23rd and 26th, respectively, in the majors.

"I worry about it a lot," Armstrong said. "Last week in Toronto, I saw it firsthand. Their no-shows were tremendous. That's why we work so hard at keeping Safeco Field so special."

Even more ominous is the arc of the Indians, who sold out Jacobs Field for six straight seasons, then fell precipitously after tearing apart the team in 2002. Now they have rebuilt the team to championship caliber on a shoestring budget, yet fans have not flocked back. The Indians rank 24th in the majors this season with 24,457 per game.

Armstrong said the Mariners will not use the Cleveland model of stripping down the ballclub to rebuild. Last winter, the Mariners dished out more than $100 million on free agents Adrian Beltre and Richie Sexson.

"It's incumbent on us — me, Bill (Bavasi), the baseball guys — to try to get the kind of players that will get this turned around as quickly as we can, as opposed to embarking on the Cleveland approach," Armstrong said. "Cleveland has such a nice little ballclub, yet we're averaging 10,000 more a game. We think we have a compact with the fans — ownership does."

Armstrong is fully aware of the perception of some that the loyalty of Mariners fans could work against them. Since the fans keep flocking out through losing seasons, the reasoning goes, the club isn't motivated to maximize the product.

Not true at all, he said.

"We don't take them for granted," Armstrong insisted. "We know we have to put a good product on the field. If we did take it for granted, we would have adopted more of a Cleveland approach and cut back.

"But we also want to have players that are proud to represent Seattle. We tell our players they are role models. That's why I've been so personally devastated that we lead the league in both major- and minor-league steroids violations."

As likeable as the Mariners have been, and as pleasant an experience as the club has made an outing to Safeco Field, those two factors will continue to wane as influences if the team keeps losing. Camden Yards is still a great place to watch a game, but the Orioles have squandered their hold on the region by featuring too many years of bad baseball.

The Mariners clearly stand at a crossroads. They can't realistically expect a third mulligan.

Larry Stone: 206-464-3146 or lstone@seattletimes.com.