Hurricane lessons go unheeded

WEST PALM BEACH, Fla. — In these last frantic days before the June 1 start of hurricane season, forecasters and disaster-response planners are coming to the dispiriting conclusion that few lessons were learned last year from Katrina, Rita and Wilma.

Waterfront construction continues to boom along the Gulf of Mexico and Florida's Atlantic coastline, tens of thousands of new homes in harm's way alongside the rebuilding of those demolished.

More than 100,000 people displaced by last year's storms are still living in government trailers, despite emergency planners' warnings that the temporary shelters are at risk of blowing apart, like most mobile homes in the region, if even a strong tropical storm passes.

Most city, state and federal emergency-management authorities still can't communicate by phone or radio in a crisis, because a $2 billion special outlay for so-called "interoperability" is mired in legislative wrangling or being spent without federal coordination.

And Lake Okeechobee, with an eroding retention dike said to be near collapse, has evoked chilling comparisons with the New Orleans levees that burst under the deluge from Katrina.

The elevated lake in western Palm Beach County looms over 40,000 people, the ecological security of the Everglades and the purity of all of South Florida's drinking water.

These causes for worry persist through no lack of pre-season planning. About 3,000 emergency-response officials flocked to Gov. Jeb Bush's five-day hurricane conference in Fort Lauderdale last week, and meteorologists from the National Weather Service have been hopscotching across the region chanting the mantra "Be prepared."

To the dismay of people who dedicate their lives to advising coastal communities on what to expect, the warnings often fall on deaf ears.

"Experience is not always a good teacher," said Max Mayfield, head of the National Hurricane Center.

Local, state and federal officials have been showering Florida and Gulf households with survival-planning checklists and stepping up efforts to persuade people at risk to stock up, shore up and ship out ahead of a storm's landfall.

"We are encouraging every individual, every family, every business to have a hurricane plan in place before the start of the season," Mayfield said. "There's too much stress with a hurricane bearing down on you to leave the planning to the last minute."

He is not encouraged by recent experience.

Just two months after Floridians watched the suffering inflicted on New Orleans by Katrina, thousands of people ignored weeklong warnings that Hurricane Wilma was headed their way, failing to buy even the most basic emergency provisions.

They were lined up within 24 hours of the Oct. 24 storm demanding bottled water and ice from local officials, Mayfield recalled.

Probably the most disturbing element of déjà vu for disaster planners was a team of experts warning in late April that the dike around Okeechobee poses a 1-in-6 chance of failure this year. Gov. Bush appealed to the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers to undertake urgent repairs and ordered the State Emergency Response Team to prepare to evacuate those living in the elevated lake's shadow.

The Corps has long known of the dike's underground leakage and perforation — the report from the South Florida Water Management District described the erosion as bearing "a striking resemblance to Swiss cheese" — but has repairs under way and emergency mitigation plans if needed, said Nancy Regalado, spokeswoman for the Jacksonville office.

The 140-mile-long Herbert Hoover Dike was built around Okeechobee after a 1928 hurricane swept the lake's water over surrounding towns, killing almost 3,000 people.

Corps engineers are less alarmed than some state authorities because the report's dire predictions are based on a lake level of 26 feet, when the water has never been higher than 18.5 feet, Regalado said.

Heavy rainfall during a hurricane could cause the regulated lake level to rise, but hydrologists are trying to factor "how many Wilmas in a row" would be needed to fill the earthen bathtub to a truly dangerous level, Regalado said.

Hurricane Wilma dumped heavy rain across South Florida and damaged the lake's retaining structures.

Meanwhile, the coastal building boom makes meteorologists and disaster planners shake their heads.

"It really bothers us, to see all the new construction along the Gulf Coast where there wasn't a stick left after last year," said Jim McFadden, aircraft program chief for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Florida's Building Commission constantly retools statewide codes, with more stringent restrictions on construction in the most hurricaneprone counties, said Jennifer Messemer, spokeswoman for the Miami-Dade building-code compliance office.

But building officials in Florida's most populous county say the pace of housing construction hasn't slowed despite last year's record-breaking storm season.

The Florida Legislature jumped in this month to encourage hurricane preparations, passing a 12-day tax holiday on supplies such as generators, radios, flashlights, waterproof sheeting, storm shutters, batteries and nonelectric food-storage coolers.

NOAA scientists launched their preseason information strike earlier this month, traveling the tropical storm zone in a P3 "Hurricane Hunter" to show visitors how they forecast, track and research hurricanes.

While thousands turned out at each stop, the scientists conceded they mostly preached to the converted.

"Unfortunately, most people learn through experience, and hurricanes are no exception. People have to go through it once or twice before they say, 'Hey, we need to get ready for this well ahead of time,' " said Robert Molleda, a hurricane-center meteorologist.