Will national Republican woes spill over into state-level races?

YAKIMA — State GOP leaders are putting a positive spin on the November election as they open their convention here today. But there's a whiff of angst in the ranks that Republican Party troubles nationally could create problems for local races at home.

The party has been beleaguered by the war in Iraq, rising gas prices, the forced resignation of former House Majority Leader Tom DeLay and the Jack Abramoff lobbying scandal. President Bush's approval ratings are at record lows.

"I worry that the backlash for the federal government could trickle into the state government as far as voting goes," said Rep. Mike Armstrong, R-Wenatchee. "I'm hoping the citizens of Washington state look at their local elections and realize that person really has no ties to the federal party."

More than 800 people are expected at the GOP convention this weekend.

Party members will spend much of their time hashing out a platform and discussing the coming election. State Attorney General Rob McKenna is the keynote speaker today. Other speakers will include GOP Senate candidate Mike McGavick, who is challenging U.S. Sen. Maria Cantwell.

Many analysts expect Republicans to face a tough election cycle nationally, perhaps even losing control of the U.S. House. Some predict they'll have a hard time in Washington state as well, in part because the party is defending several open seats in the state Senate and House.

Democrats control the state House, Senate and the governor's office in Washington. They hope to increase their majority this election.

A state poll by Seattle pollster Stuart Elway in March showed that when voters were asked which party's legislative candidate they most likely would vote for, Democrats led Republicans 44 percent to 33 percent, with the rest undecided.

Republican Party Chairwoman Diane Tebelius, however, said she sees no cause for concern.

"I've never been a believer that what might be happening in federal politics is necessarily affecting what goes on in state politics," she said. "I think we're going to pick up seats in the [state] House and Senate, and at a very minimum will retain all our seats in the state Senate."

Party leaders in the state House and Senate agree. "I don't feel like I'm going to lose any seats and I could possibly pick one up," said Senate Republican Leader Mike Hewitt, R-Walla Walla.

Delegates arriving in Yakima on Friday seemed optimistic about November, too. "I think Republicans are going to do real well," said William Schumacher of Castle Rock.

Recent polls by Strategic Vision, a national firm that's done work for the state House Republicans, show Bush's approval rating at around 31 percent in Washington. However, David Johnson, the company's chief executive officer, says he doesn't expect that to affect local races.

"The anger seems more geared toward politicians in Washington, D.C., and it's not really translating down to the local level," he said.

Others aren't so certain.

"I'm worried," said Rep. Fred Jarrett, a moderate Republican from Mercer Island. "If it's a bad year for Republicans everywhere, I'm a Republican."

In an interview earlier this week, former state GOP Chairman Chris Vance said "there's a lot of concern about the Legislature."

"The conventional wisdom is that Republicans are not going to have a particularly good year," said Vance, now a consultant at The Gallatin Group, a public-affairs firm in Seattle. "They have a bunch of districts to defend that are tough to defend."

For example, Republican state Sen. Bill Finkbeiner is leaving his seat in the Eastside's 45th District, which is considered a swing district. Although 53 percent of the district voters went for GOP gubernatorial candidate Dino Rossi in the 2004 election, an equal proportion voted for Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry.

Democrats hope to pick the seat up with Eric Oemig, of Kirkland, a former Microsoft software engineer who has raised more than $79,000 so far, including $35,000 of his own money. Republicans say they're confident Rep. Toby Nixon, R-Kirkland, will take the seat. Nixon has raised a little more than $11,000, based on the latest state filings.

In the House, Rep. Rodney Tom in the Eastside 48th District recently announced he was switching from Republican to Democrat and running for the state Senate. That leaves his seat up for grabs. Bret Olson, a former staff member for U.S. Rep Jennifer Dunn, is running as a Republican for the seat. He has raised about $7,000. Former Kirkland Mayor Deb Eddy is running as a Democrat. She has raised more than $18,000.

Bryan Jones, a political-science professor at the University of Washington, said Republicans should be concerned about the mood of voters.

"I don't think I've seen this level of anger. I mean this is a bunch of mad people out there," Jones said. "This is not a state of equilibrium. This is a state moving more Democratic."

That doesn't mean Republicans "can't turn it around, but they're in as much trouble as I've ever seen a party in trouble," he said.

It's a bit early for people to make predictions one way or the other, said Randy Pepple, a Republican consultant. He said a few key developments nationally could make a big difference by November.

"If people tomorrow all of the sudden started feeling better about Iraq, that erases a whole lot of the malaise in the voting population," he said.

Armstrong says that anytime one party controls all branches of government, "there doesn't seem to be the balance that our founding fathers were looking for in our government."

It's a point Armstrong says he hopes voters keep in mind about the Democratic-controlled Legislature. "They can choose somebody to help put back balance at the state level," he said.

Andrew Garber: 360-943-9882 or agarber@seattletimes.com