Iraq: It's worse than we knew

The blunt assessment of how bad things are in Iraq is a lasting value of the report by the wise heads assembled to provide the United States and the Bush administration with exit strategies.

Events can turn the Iraq Study Group's to-do lists and assignments to dust, but the steely, nonpartisan analysis of policy failures and desperate conditions stands in stark counterpoint to any glib cheerleading out of the White House. The 160-page report quickly dismisses the familiar options: a fast withdrawal of U.S. troops; staying the course; sending more troops; partitioning Iraq into sectarian and ethnic regions.

Instead, with an eye toward a significant pull-back of U.S. troops by 2008, the panel of luminaries proposes a new regional diplomatic offensive and specific milestones for the Iraqis in national reconciliation, security and governance. Failure to meet the objectives means the U.S. should reduce its political, economic and military commitments to Iraq, according to the study group.

The advice is by turns practical and cosmic. Transfer the Iraqi police forces, which are awful, to the Ministry of Defense, where the army is less awful. Solving Iraq cannot happen without resolution of the Arab-Israeli conflict and more attention to Afghanistan, the study group points out.

Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki has come around to the idea of calling for a regional conference to promote stability and security. His Shiite supporters have not, and one of their key leaders, Ab-dul-Aziz al-Hakim, told President Bush the same thing.

In the scheme of Iraqi politics, the report notes that the Shia, the majority of Iraqi people, have gained power for the first time in 1,300 years. Do not expect them to barter that position away.

Throughout its glum narrative, the report lays down benchmarks of reality: Violence is increasing in scope, complexity and lethality; the ability of the United States to influence events within Iraq is diminishing; there is no action the American military can take that, by itself, can bring about success in Iraq.

Iraq has claimed more than 2,900 American lives, 21,000 wounded, depleted military manpower and equipment, and costs $8 billion a month. By the time the U.S. leaves Iraq, it's estimated the total expense will be $2 trillion. Three thousand Iraqis are dying each month. More than a million people have fled the country.

Some factoids offer their own small windows on reality. The U.S. embassy has 1,000 employees but just 33 Arabic speakers — six are rated as fluent.

The U.S. is in the midst of a quagmire of its own making. The bloodshed has devolved into sectarian battles that virtually push the Americans to the sidelines of influence. The Iraq Study Group basically sets up a departure by 2008 if a laundry list of things does not happen.

Do not expect much to be achieved. On one point the president is right: There will not be a graceful exit.