Big Mo missing from state job gains

Washington's economy continued to show strength last month, although there were signs its best days, at least for this economic cycle, might be behind it.

Unemployment edged up to a seasonally adjusted 5 percent from 4.8 percent in October as new workers poured into the job market faster than employers could absorb them.

The labor-force participation rate grew to 67.5 percent from 67 percent in October. The rate measures people who are either working or actively looking for work as a share of the entire adult population.

The state gained a seasonally adjusted 4,900 nonfarm payroll jobs in November, down from 7,200 added in October.

The October gain itself was revised down from the 10,700 originally reported.

Economists are nearly unanimous in forecasting slower growth for Washington in 2007, although the state should still fare better than the nation as a whole.

In fact, job growth in the state has decelerated from the torrid pace set for most of this year.

The state's economic expansion is in its mature phase, said Evelina Tainer, chief economist for the state Employment Security Department's Labor Market and Economic Analysis Branch.

"Going forward, we are going to see slower growth," Tainer said.

Several key employers — including Paccar, TransAlta, Longview Fibre and Icos — have laid off workers or announced plans to do so. Those job cuts will show up in future reports.

Still, the state's jobless rate last month was below November 2005's 5.4 percent. For most of this year, the rate has remained in the high 4 percent-low 5 percent range.

Washington's neighbors also saw slightly higher unemployment in November.

Monday, Oregon reported a 5.3 percent jobless rate, up from 5.1 percent in October.

Idaho's rate edged up to 3.3 percent from 3.2 percent.

The national rate also rose in November, to 4.5 percent from 4.4 percent in October.

Aerospace continued to be a high point of Washington's economy, gaining 800 jobs in November.

Over the past 12 months, the sector has added 5,500 jobs, for a year-over-year growth rate of nearly 8 percent.

Additional manufacturing sectors showed gains, too, albeit smaller ones.

Other sectors that added jobs last month included transportation and warehousing (1,300), miscellaneous administrative and office-support services (1,100), specialty-construction contractors (700), and temporary-help agencies and other employment-services companies (700).

Despite the approaching holiday-shopping season, general-merchandise stores lost 1,100 jobs in November.

Most other retail categories either were flat or showed small gains.

Tainer speculated that the retail data could reflect the difficulties faced by many mainline department stores — including Mervyn's, which is pulling out of the state.

In addition, she said, strong retail hiring earlier this year may have reduced the need for seasonal workers.

Drew DeSilver: 206-464-3145 or ddesilver@seattletimes.com