Foes of road, transit taxes face uphill fight

A lopsided fight is shaping up over the nearly $18 billion roads-and-transit tax package on the November ballot.

Several groups are fighting the measure, including one that hit the airwaves this week with radio advertisements throughout the region.

But the opposition groups are fragmented. They have different political agendas and are not pooling resources. Transit supporters object to spending billions on roads. Highway advocates make the same complaint about light rail. Others complain about the overall size of the tax package.

Proposition 1 would increase sales taxes and car-tab fees to improve highways and extend light rail in King, Snohomish and Pierce counties.

Supporters have raised more than $800,000 so far and expect to collect around $4 million. They also plan to run television advertisements by the end of the month promoting the ballot measure.

"Given the size of the yes campaign budget and organization, it's not even a fair fight right now," said Christian Sinderman, a Democratic consultant who is not involved with any of the campaigns.

"The pro side has spent three years preparing for this moment," he said. "They are organized, and they have strong messages."

The coalition supporting the measure has most of the political and economic heavyweights in the region, including the Washington State Labor Council, Boeing, Microsoft and the chairs of the Legislature's transportation committees.

Still, opponents say they've got a good shot at defeating the measure.

The only opposition group that's raised money so far is NoToProp1.Org. State records show it's received about $51,000 in contributions — all from Mark Baerwaldt, of Seattle.

Baerwaldt, who says he's founded and managed tech companies, has pledged an additional $200,000 of his own money. Baerwaldt was previously involved with Sane Transit, a group that opposed Sound Transit's light-rail system.

He says his group purchased airtime on numerous radio stations for the first 10 days of September and is also running ads on newspaper Web sites. He plans to buy more radio ads in the future.

The radio ads contend the tax package represents the nation's biggest local tax increase ever. The ads say the roads and transit package would ultimately cost $157 billion over 50 years.

Baerwaldt said he's heard a lot of people talking about the ads. "They will never recover from the first initial blow, I don't care how much money they spend."

Aaron Toso, a spokesman for the yes campaign, Yesonroadsandtransit.org, disagreed with the ads. "Their numbers are wrong," he said. "They misconstrue numbers."

Transportation planners project the roads and transit plan would spend about $7 billion, in 2006 dollars, on more than two dozen highway and local road projects.

Another $10.8 billion would extend Sound Transit light rail east to Redmond's Overlake area, south to Tacoma and north past Lynnwood in Snohomish County.

Adding the additional costs of inflation, financing, operations, overhead and cash reserves, transportation planners project the entire package would cost about $38 billion by the time all the projects were finished 20 years from now.

The opposition's $157 billion figure was developed by Jim MacIsaac, a Bellevue engineer and longtime adviser to Sound Transit critics. The number includes finance costs and assumes Sound Transit would collect all its existing sales taxes, plus the new ones on the November ballot, through 2057, when the last bonds expire.

The figure also includes proposed car-tab taxes for roads and an existing car-tab tax for transit that expires in 2028. Some of those billions would be collected regardless of the November election, to fund such projects as a light-rail line from downtown Seattle to Husky Stadium that was approved by voters in 1996.

MacIsaac predicts that Sound Transit would be overwhelmed by high operating costs in the long term, and would need to collect all the taxes through 2057.

However, Sound Transit leaders say they would gradually reduce tax rates after all the new projects were done — unless voters opt for more taxes and transit lines.

The radio ads also mention that the Sierra Club opposes the ballot measure.

Mike O'Brien, chairman of the Cascade Chapter of the Sierra Club, says his group opposes the ballot measure but is not affiliated with NoToProp1.Org.

There are no plans for the groups to join forces, he said, noting that about the only thing they agree on is that they oppose the tax package.

Andrew Garber: agarber@seattletimes.com or 360-236-8268