Primary confuses, interests state voters
Washington's presidential primary on Tuesday has voters confused and angry, candidates lackadaisical at best, and the state's chief election official predicting the biggest turnout ever.
If Secretary of State Sam Reed is right that 47 percent of eligible voters will cast ballots, it'll be a sign of high interest in the presidential campaign and not a reflection of the importance of Washington's vote.
The results, however, will help flesh out a picture of where the state's electorate is nine months before the general election even though Democrats will not designate a single delegate based on the state's primary results.
Will Republican regulars stick with former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, who did so well in the Feb. 9 caucuses, or will they return to the fold and back Sen. John McCain? Will the wider scope of voters expected in the primary show the enthusiasm for Sen. Barack Obama that Democrats did in their caucuses, or will Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton be able to counter her trouncing?
The conventional wisdom — which has been faulty this year — says caucus-goers represent the extremes of the political parties. That means a higher percentage of liberal Democrats and conservative Republicans showed up on Feb. 9 than what we'll see in the primary.
Washington's system for selecting presidential nominees is divided between party caucuses and the state-run primary — something no other state does.
And only those primary ballots cast for Republican candidates will count toward a presidential nominee in the nominal race between McCain and Huckabee.
Democrats will ignore the results of the race between Clinton and Obama for allocating their delegates. That leads some to call the primary a beauty contest. But the process isn't pretty.
It's enough to leave a voter's head spinning. This was a phone message left for The Seattle Times after the paper reported Obama's win in the caucuses a week ago:
"I just woke up and saw your article, which does not work. I'm looking at my ballot and we're not even due till Tuesday to have our ballots in. How can Obama already win? You guys totally jumped the gun. You might want to wait till all the ballots are in after Tuesday to say somebody won.
"You guys totally look stupid."
And if it's not complicated enough, the ballots include candidates who are no longer in the race. Some have already endorsed front-runners and others never even ran a campaign, like Republican Alan Keyes.
But they're all there for the choosing. Well, that is if you agree to sign an oath of loyalty to the party you want to vote for.
Angry voters have returned their ballots with handwritten notes protesting the oath.
"I believe it to be an injustice in this democratic 'land of the free' to be told we can vote only for candidates of one party or the other," a Thurston County voter wrote on his ballot envelope. "I believe we should be allowed, and encouraged, in this 'free' country to vote for the candidate we believe to be best qualified — We are not voting for parties!"
No campaigning
Reed said most counties last week reported strong returns of early mail-in ballots. The 47 percent turnout he's predicting would be slightly higher than in the state's last presidential primary in 2000.
"But you never know," Reed said. "We're guessing."
There's probably no better measure of how little the candidates care about the race than the whereabouts of Huckabee. He finished close behind McCain in the Republican caucuses, and argued that the results might have been skewed against him.
Yet Huckabee is doing no campaigning in the state. That'd be hard to do from the Cayman Islands, where he is making a paid speaking engagement.
It's unclear if his campaign has any plans before Tuesday. National campaign officials did not return repeated telephone calls, and local volunteer leaders say they have been directed not to talk to the media.
McCain's campaign is placing prerecorded telephone calls urging people to vote. But that appears to be the only sign of a campaign between the Feb. 9 caucuses and Tuesday's primary.
"Frankly, the race is over," said Josh Kahn, the state Republican Party's former communications director. He is now a communications consultant in Washington, D.C. "With Huckabee going out to the Caymans, it's almost laughable."
Attorney General Rob McKenna, chairman of McCain's campaign here, said local volunteers are working to organize the next round of caucuses for legislative and congressional districts.
"McCain's enormous lead in delegates has made the primary less crucial in the minds of some Republicans," he said. "But I think McCain would like to win the primary, especially since the caucuses were so close."
The race is still very much alive on the Democratic side. But Tuesday's vote won't matter, as far as the state party is concerned. It will allocate all its delegates through the caucus and convention process — and none through the primary.
Obama's campaign has moved on to other states and is not focusing on Washington's vote. Peter Masundire, who heads Obama's grass-roots organizing effort here, said he and other volunteers are trying to get in touch with as many supporters as possible to urge them to cast ballots.
"But we're not doing anything overly aggressive," Masundire said.
Vote once, vote twice
One of the biggest challenges — especially for the Republicans — has been to make sure people know they are allowed to vote twice.
Many people who attended the caucuses are not aware that they can also vote in the primary, said GOP spokesman Patrick Bell. Some have even called the party worried that they might be prosecuted for voting twice, Bell said.
Chris Vance, former state Republican Party chairman, said all the confusion detracts from a historic election.
"People are pumped up and they really want to be part of this process," Vance said. "But it's just so incoherent and confusing."
Local supporters of Republican Congressman Ron Paul's presidential campaign are hoping to benefit. They've set up a Web site, wastedvote2008.com, urging Democrats to ignore the meaningless primary on their side of the ballot for the chance to muck around in Republican Party politics.
"The key thing to realize here is that you have nothing to lose," the Web site says. "Voting in the Republican primary is NOT a vote in favor of the Republican Party. Rather, it is an opportunity to stack the deck on the Republican side with your preference."
The Web site goes on to note that Paul is the only anti-war Republican in the race.
In other states this year, McCain has done well among independent voters. But it's hard to gauge how the independents will break here.
In 2000, the state's presidential primary gave voters three ballot choices: Republican, Democrat or "unaffiliated." But neither party counted the unaffiliated ballots for allocating delegates.
Among voters who selected Republican ballots that year, McCain lost to George W. Bush by nearly 20 percentage points. But McCain won by nearly as big of a margin among people who used unaffiliated ballots.
This year's primary offers no unaffiliated ballot. Instead voters must sign the oath stating that they consider themselves Republican or Democrat and vow not to take part in the other party's caucuses.
A key question is how many independents will be willing to sign a loyalty oath.
One factor that will likely work against Huckabee: Washington residents are among the least church-going in the nation.
All five of the primaries that Huckabee has won thus far were in Southern states that rank in the top 10 for people who say they attend church at least once a week. In all of those states, more than 50 percent of the people say they go to church at least weekly, according to a Gallup survey.
Washington ranks near the bottom, at 32 percent weekly church attendance.
That's about the same percentage as in California, Massachusetts and New York — states where McCain beat Huckabee by wide margins.
"Every logical indicator I can look at says John McCain is going to win this primary," said Vance, a McCain supporter.
David Postman: 360-236-8267 or dpostman@seattletimes.com
Ralph Thomas: 360-236-8266 or rthomas@seattletimes.com
Tuesday's election
What else is on the ballot?School levies and bonds: The Arlington, Darrington, Granite Falls, Lakewood, Monroe, Stanwood-Camano, Federal Way and Tukwila school districts all have levy renewals or replacements on the ballot. The Mukilteo School District has a $139.2 million construction bond and a capital-projects levy.
Federal Way: A measure would change the city's form of government by eliminating the city-manager position and making the mayor the chief executive officer of the city, with an administrator to help with day-to-day business.
Auburn: Two annexation measures would add the Totem and Klump districts to the city of Auburn.
Mukilteo: Voters are asked whether the city should build a new community center.
Fire districts: Bond issues for Fire District 16 in Kenmore and Valley Regional Fire Authority would build or remodel fire stations.
How do I vote?
At the polls: King County polls are open from 7 a.m. to 8 p.m. To find your polling place in King County: metrokc.gov/elections or call 206-296-VOTE (8683).
Vote by mail: Your ballot must be postmarked by Tuesday. Permanent absentee voters who have not received their ballots can get a replacement ballot in person from the King County Elections office or by visiting a polling place on Election Day. The office is closed Monday for Presidents Day.
Snohomish County: All voting is by mail.
To find ballot drop-off locations: www1.co.snohomish.wa.us/Departments/Auditor/
Divisions/Elections_Voting